The Elephant in the Room

Very interesting polls today, if you look at the figures in two ways.

The first way is literally. The Tory lead has narrowed slightly on average. Although they have seized control of their campaign and thus are making the running overall with their NI tax cut, this is not reflected in greater voter support so far. Could it be that the endorsement of ‘big business’ is playing against them? Is the sea change I talked about previously real and playing beneath the surface? Maybe. Or maybe there is very little real shift in the polls because although the media find it all very interesting and hang on every word, the public ignore what is said because they do not believe any of it;  to the voters all politicians are liars looking after their own interests? Perhaps.

The second way is to understand that this election is different because there are three parties in contention for the first time in nearly 90 years. The Lib Dems have 62 seats in the dissolving parliament, more than at any time since 1924. Their importance is underlined by the fact that in the top 75 must win Tory marginals without which Cameron is not even close, (he needs 117) 17 are Lib Dem held. In all the polls there is one common factor now coming through. The trend of the Lib Dem support is on the up. What happens with that on polling day is the Elephant in the Room. It could make everything else hinge upon it.