Marginals Poll

There is a new poll of the 100 top marginals which the Tories must win. This shows a 12% swing which the Telegraph, who publish the poll, says puts Cameron on track for a convincing win. It is true that the Tory lead is slightly better in most polls since the launch of their manifesto, although this may be more to do with the media blitz than the content.

However the Telegraph goes on to explain that this would give Cameron 74 of the Labour held marginals and none of those held by the Lib Dems. He needs 117 new seats to win.  According to the Telegraph’s analysis this would give Cameron 74 gains. If that was that, this would give the Tories 272  Labour 281 and the Lib Dems about where they are now. This is not a convincing win. It is actually not as good as the average of all the main polls with a uniform swing, which shows the Tories 32 short. The Telegraph poll puts them 54 down, with Labour in front. This would leave Clegg to do a deal with either or to demand a grand coalition of all Parties to see the country through the crisis. This is what voters really want.

A lot can still happen. Cameron can break out into a real win. Brown can settle in and stop him. Clegg can surge and cause an upset. It is still too early to tell. Too many undecided, too many angry and too many who have given up on the whole process. It is what they do on the day that will determine the outcome. Which is why it is wide open, with hope for all. Even the Telegraph.

Tonight’s debate will be interesting. It may be like the Chancellors’ debate where all did well in their own way with one(Vince) favourite, or one of them may triumph. As we know with celebrity TV, one of them could blow it; remember the 1992 Kinnock rally. It may be the clips on You Tube which will give the best indication of the outcome.