Some Election Numbers
The big question now is whether Nick Clegg’s success in the first TV debate starts a surge towards the third party. This may not be a disaster for Brown, although it would be if all the seats gained by Lib Dems came from Labour. It is as likely that a Lib Dem surge would make Cameron’s huge task even more difficult, although not necessarily so. It is too early to predict anything. All we know is the campaign has changed from a two to a three horse race and nobody living has any experience of this.
What we do know is that when Churchill regained power for the Tories in 1951 the Liberals got 6 seats and when Heath won from Wilson in 1970 once again the Liberals won 6. When Thatcher ousted Callaghan in 1979 they managed 11. However on the back of the Blair massacre of Major in 1997 the Lib Dems went up to 46. Since then they advanced to 52 in 2001 and 62 in 2005; these last two mostly at Labour’s expense. It is difficult to tell whether any gains they could make this time will come from Brown or Cameron. It will depend whether the voting mood is to get rid of Labour or to keep the Tories out. If they keep their 62 they will almost certainly hold the balance of power.
Some other figures are interesting. The greatest number of new seats won by the Tories at any election since WWII was in 1950 when they won 88 new seats but still lost to Labour, although they did mange to scrape in with a further 23 gains in 1951. If Cameron equalled that joint total now he would still be short. In 1970, when the Tories were expected to lose, Heath won convincingly with 77 gains. Thatcher took 62 in 1979. However in the landslide of 1945 Labour took 239 and in 1997 it was 147. This suggests the country is more willing to swing left in a single go, than swing right. But all of that was on the basis of a two horse race with an ideological divide. Now things look rather different.
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