Trump And China

The Obama administration did much to restore America’s tarnished overseas reputation post Bush II, but paradoxically was entirely out of its depth trying to resolve international problems, which largely it made worse. Trump has all along demonstrated a more focused understanding and has appointed a cabinet which appears to reflect that. Careful reading of the tea leaves (an English expression for watching the signals for baffled American readers) in Trump Tower indicates that Europe will be left to get on with its problems but will have to dig a lot deeper into its own pocket if it wants US military protection.  Russia will become a partner of mutual interests diplomatically and even militarily to step up the fight against IS, but will be allowed to sort out Syria to its own liking and will be left with its own programme for Eastern Ukraine. Israel will be assured of US backing but will be told with a smile that the price for keeping it is to get its peace act together with the Palestinians, in which it will be allowed a pretty free hand.

The main focus will be on China economically and diplomatically with a proactive agenda and a menu to secure the Trump administration’s continued backing for the sacred One China doctrine. This will include a more evenly balanced trade deal incorporating tariffs and less unfair competition from continuous devaluations of the Yuan,  together with access for American goods in the potentially vast expansion of China’s gradual economic re-balance to home consumption. Militarily Trump will concede some degree of a sphere of influence for China (similar to the reality of Russia) but will seek a joint approach to dealing with the increasing threat from North Korea. Here military action will be firmly on the agenda, including a preemptive surgical nuclear strike with low yield precision weapons which can penetrate any underground factories and silos. This will not be advertised, even on Twitter.

There is absolutely no way Trump will sit on his hands waiting to see if North Korea can actually perfect a rocket and hit America with a nuclear warhead. Trump knows that this is the only real threat to the United States apart from terrorism and he is going to deal with it. He will seek to convince China that he is serious and in turn hope that Beijing will be able to convince Pyongyang. Part of the carrot aspect could be a meeting with the North Korean leader hosted by China.

Western capitals, including London, will have to get used to a very different world view and refocus on diplomacy which moves forward, rather than goes round in circles. It will be challenging, sometimes alarming, but also refreshing.

By the way, where is Boris?