EU: Could It Unravel?

Compared to its present format Yes. It has reached its high water mark. There will be no advance to federalization. Whatever its political class hopes for and whatever the insular Brussels declares, there is now no longer a majority among the European people for ratification of any further loss of sovereignty. But it is worse than that. There is a majority for Brussels having a good deal less and nation states having a good deal more.

I have had suspicions ever since the Brexit vote that, like a spider’s web, you could not detach a member, and a key leading power at that, and not damage the whole thing to the point where it starts to lose tension and unravel. I have no doubt the EU cannot sustain both the loss of GB and the loss of whole-hearted support from Washington.

Now the questions have been asked they will not go away. Moreover what this blog said long ago, is now being said by the man who will be the President of the US before the week is out. The EU has become Germany’s vehicle for economic hegemony. Trump speaks not to politicians but to the people. And the people listen.

This does not mean an implosion. Nor does it mean chaos, at least one hopes not. But what it does mean is that as Britain negotiates its exit, the EU itself will have to reform to survive or else Italy and France will follow, spurred on by some rather unsavoury political echoes from right wing political movements in the newer Eastern members. The natural synergy between the membership has been lost because it has become too big. The economic shared interest has been shattered by Germany’s control of the Euro. Once again Germany has used its power with a, perhaps unintentional, heavy hand. We are also again at a point where German power has expanded too far south and east and ground to a stop. This time it is soft power, but soft power still damages weaker populations.

It will all be peaceful and the supreme lesson has been learned that all the countries of Europe, west and east, can live together as neighbours. But all living in the same house does not work. Especially after one moves out, leaving Germany as the landlord. This is not a criticism of Germany. It is just too good at everything for everybody else to keep up.