May’s Hard Brexit: Over the Cliff?

The prime minister made a good speech yesterday which brought certain tabloids to a state of ecstasy, full of confidence and jingoism. At a certain level it was inspiring and it was good politics for sure. Most of it is rumoured be be written by Boris, who was trawling the media afterwards with back up. As you will know, if you are a regular follower of this blog, I am and always will be, for remain. I am emotionally, by family ties, by heritage and by conviction.

But I do see the other side of the argument and I do understand those who think it better to leave. Many of my posts have highlighted all that is wrong with the EU. Now we know where we are headed, or at least where our government is headed (I did not vote for these people) I have no hesitation in opposing the whole thing hook, line and sinker and declaring this hard Brexit programme an act of international vandalism for which a price will one day be paid.

My first objection is that I believe the EU is the greatest diplomatic achievement since the fall of Rome and one which has brought an extraordinary period of peace and harmony in Europe, underpinned by a new sense of fellowship, shared heritage and belonging. It is held up by three pillars, Germany, Britain and France. If one pillar goes, as I have already argued, the structure may fall. To suppose that we will profit from that in the long term is ridiculous.

My second objection is  the legal, financial and human consequences which will be felt in every corner of the land by ordinary people who will be caught in chain reactions which they will be unable to control. Every tiny part of the business, legal and trade infrastructure and every centre of expertise, is built to the European model and integrated into a European whole. To order the amputation of all this, without a clear idea of what comes next, is to play fast and loose with people’s lives and livelihoods, for which no government has a licence nor this government a mandate.

Third, the younger generation voted overwhelmingly to remain. They are the ones who are going to have to live with this. They have been ignored and moreover abused. because many of the youngest adults have obtained degrees and run up vast debts on student loans, to find the whole horizon for their career opportunities has been changed on wave of prejudice and ignorance.

Fourth, the strain has already caused the collapse of the power sharing government in Northern Ireland. Nobody is sure it can be put back together. Remember NI voted to remain. The Democratic Unionists, for which this blog has no time at all, voted to leave. With their  strident new leader, the DUP has nothing to offer but tension and discord.   Meanwhile the latest polls show that Wales, which voted leave, would now vote remain and, as we know only too well, hard Brexit will almost certainly trigger another independence referendum in Scotland. So the suggestion that there is unity among the home nations for this hard Brexit plan is rubbish. Only England supports it and even that is now doubtful.

Finally the deal to leave the EU and all its works requires only the approval of the council (Heads of Government of the 27) and the European Parliament by majority. So that is quite straightforward. But some kind of trade agreement with the EU and or the Customs Union requires ratification by all 27 states individually. How long that will take and whether it is politically even possible is anybody’s guess. As for the WTO, just remember that to return to membership as a sovereign state, GB will have to gain the approval of all the members unanimously, 157 of them. That is when Gibraltar and the Falklands will appear on the menu.

The tabloids praise May to the skies. They compare her to the Iron Lady. The difference is Thatcher knew what she was doing. Until the poll tax. That sank her. If May is wrong over this it could sink us all. Of course Britain has a great tradition of being inspired by rhetoric. Churchill is the gold standard, but even he could not have won the war, indeed would have lost it, if not rescued by the Americans. Trump is a great fan of Brexit, although is not perhaps a master of its detail. But he offers a fast track trade deal. Maybe history will repeat itself. But the price that Churchill paid was a bankrupt country and loss of the British Empire. We do not know what price May will pay, but be assured it will be something.