Labour’s Challenge: A Moment Of Truth for Corbyn.

Labour’s position in the polls is without modern precedent. A double digit Tory lead is only part of the problem. There is now a credible UKIP challenge in its heartlands, which depending on who lies second, could cause losses to the Tories, to the Lib Dems or to UKIP itself. In the two upcoming by-elections in its own seats, Labour is predicted to lose both.

Why is this? It is very simple. No political party can survive the impact of an attempted coup by its parliamentary arm against the membership’s choice of leader, fail in the attempt and retain credibility with the mass of voters outside its own bubble.Voters are now unable to fathom what it is Labour stands for. Is is for or against Brexit? What about immigration? What is its economic plan? Why is it backing all these disruptive strikes which make people late for work? How on earth has it managed to get itself into a double digit polling deficit?

It really does not matter what the answers are or indeed whether there are any. All that matters is that the era of tribal politics is over, the era of disruptive politics is upon us and the the unexpected champion of disruptive change in the UK is no longer, as it certainly once was, Jeremy Corbyn. It is Theresa May.

To recover its position, Labour needs to grasp,  through its ranks and across the breadth of the whole movement, that centre politics is over, new politics is coming and new politics will be of the Left. New economic models, new models of globalization, border controls, currency management, training, taxation, education, healthcare funding and international relations are all on their way. Corbyn has done an amazing job of re-energizing the Labour movement and hugely increasing the membership. But it now looks increasingly unlikely that he will be able to deliver power.

Yet were he now to resign matters would get worse not better, because there is no sign of a credible Labour leader who could take on the likes of May, Boris and Sturgeon. So the urgent priority is now to find one. For Labour’s time will come, but it will not wait. Labour will have to be ready with a narrative which inspires and gives hope, a clear set of radical policies which will deliver positive change and a charismatic leader who can communicate the message and lead it to power.

PS. This might be a good moment to read Turn Left To Power. (See previous post)