How Trump Will Govern: Prepare For Change

This post will try to predict what Trump’s America will be like for the rest of the world. It is not about whether you are for or against this new man in the White House. It is about the fact that he is there.

First of all Trump sees himself as a national leader with a very high profile who has been sent to Washington by the people to rule. Not to preside. Therefore he will be like no other in several generations. Already the rest of the world has stopped talking about America or the United States, when talking about international relations or geo-politics. Now everyone says ‘Trump’. Just as many say Putin, when they mean Russia. Or in the past Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini or Franco. But it does not mean Trump is bad, although he is without doubt a very unpopular figure outside America at the moment, but that could change, or even get worse. For quite a while everyone said Mandela when they meant South Africa and he was universally admired, almost worshiped. What it does mean is that Trump’s view or intention is the only one that matters.

Here it gets interesting, because the American constitution is organised to shape federal government in the form of consensus, over which the elected leader presides. He or she will be able to govern according to the consensus but if the occupant of the White House cannot lead consensus, not much is going to happen. Trump does not do consensus. But he talks direct to the people. Every morning when he wakes up he picks up his phone and tweets.

He says what is on his mind, what he wants to do for the people, and, this is critical, who is getting in the way. The people no longer listen to the media or hear the views of other politicians. They just look at their phones. He then gets dressed and goes off to sign his favourite instrument of government, the Executive Order. This sounds rather exciting and indeed it is. All of it is done on video live, so people can see the spectacular Trump signature being applied to folio after folio. He looks at the camera and says a few words of explanation. What people hear is not actually said but they pick up the nuance straight away. I am doing this for you. To keep you safe. To get your job back. To cut your taxes. To protect your values. To make America great. Again.

Unfortunately America’s machine of government does not work like that. The Executive Orders can judder to a halt when challenged in the Courts and border walls cannot be built without cash, which has to come from Congress. So it remains to be seen what is actually achieved by this new style of politics inside America. Outside America’s borders it is a different story.

Here the president, also Commander-In-Chief of a military juggernaut so enormous as to be bigger than all the rest of the world put together, can do much as he likes. He likes nation states, by-lateral trade deals, strong borders, torture, Brexit and Putin. He does not like Iran, climate change reduction measures, treaties which do not put America first, trading blocks, military alliances that America pays for, ISIS and  what he calls bad dudes. So it hardly surprising that in Europe many a well oiled political palm is turning a touch sweaty with anxiety.

There are only two capitals enjoying the moment. One is Moscow, where there is hope that a more reasoned and balanced relationship can be struck with Trump. The other is London. Having abandoned through Brexit its traditional role as America’s gateway to Europe, without a twinge of conscience and with undisguised glee, the old Imperial capital is setting itself up as Europe’s gateway to America. That is what holding hands and the State Visit are all about.