Corbyn’s Warning: His Best Option?

Corbyn has written to his rebels and told them this time they escape punishment, but they must be good in future. Given that Brexit transcends party lines in England, this apparently limp response is probably the wisest course.

I have remarked before that Corbyn’s Labour party is surprisingly successful in the House of Commons when judged on its ability to change the direction of government policy and influence the political flow of events. There is now a suspicion that a ragged opposition is more effective in parliament than one drummed neatly into line. This could well be the case, as more members feel emboldened to express an opinion, increasing the depth and variety of debate. On the other hand there is evidence that voters take the opposite view. For its disunity Labour may be  about to pay a shattering electoral price. The leadership is campaigning for all its worth, but nevertheless awaits the outcome of the two approaching by-elections in its heartlands with anxiety. Apparently both have been Labour seats since 1935.

However, although the Tories look the more united behind the vicarage style verities which pour from their leader’s lips, there are many big potholes in their road to final Brexit, some so deep as to have the potential to cause the wheels to fly off the Tory government altogether. In particular the fact that the hard Brexit model chosen by May (there is no such thing as Clean Brexit) is anathema to the many, many, Remain Tories, not just in parliament, but across their voting strongholds in the South East. Conversely Labour supporters for Brexit and those for Remain can more easily unite behind the soft Brexit model for which Labour will campaign.

So watch carefully and take nothing for granted. Even if Labour gets a drubbing on February 23rd.