Blair’s Mission: Past Its Sell By Date?

On the face of it there is no earthly reason why those who want to remain in the EU should not be politically mobilized. It is not undemocratic because we are a parliamentary democracy with a formally constituted opposition. After an election the losing side becomes the Opposition and continues to make its case. So Blair is well within his rights and he is entitled to tap into the political potential of anxious Remain supporters.

It is not quite as simple as that. Brexit was not an election. It was a referendum and they are different. Simply put parliament transferred its sovereignty to the people on the  ‘in or out’ question. The voters chose out. What they chose was a complete change of direction. Some will have wanted to put the clock back, while others had a clear vision of a new world. It was not a vote on a matter of policy. It was on a matter of principle. And British history on matters of principle is that whatever the shortcomings and in spite of vigorous opposing views, whatever change it is, sustains. Once the break came from Rome in the Reformation there was no turning back in spite of the rocky road which had to be traveled before everything settled down.

So it may be with Brexit. Not least because the old EU which Remainers favour may itself be gone. Once again there is talk of Greece in trouble and dropping out of the euro, except this time there is also talk of it using the US dollar. Whichever candidate wins in France will demand big changes in the way the EU is managed, and if it is Le Penn there could even be Frexit.  The same applies to Italy. In both France and Italy, even if they stay in the EU, there will be huge pressure to come out of the euro. Merkel may not get back to power in Germany. There are reactionary far right nationalist governments popping up in Eastern Europe. So we could find that we cannot turn the clock back even if we wanted to and some new set of alliances held together by NATO and free trade is the shape of things to come in whichever direction we go.

Moreover the warnings about the Scots voting to exit the UK may no longer be valid. Scotland might well have voted to remain in the EU and if the price for doing so was to exit the UK, the SNP might triumph in its ambition of an independent Scotland. But if there is instability in Europe, together with convulsions in the US and uncertainties about the nature and direction of globalisation, Scotland may well feel the time is not right to go it alone.