A Triumph For May: And For Corbyn?

The Conservative victory in Copeland is a great political achievement. It is a major boost for May, who perhaps lacked democratic endorsement, having been voted in by Tory MPs only (which this blog applauded and would make mandatory for parties in government) and having lost the ultra safe Richmond to an anti-Brexit Lib Dem in a vanity contest involving Zach Goldsmith. This is also a heavy blow for Labour, whose difficulties increased in a constituency dominated by the nuclear industry, to which its leader is a life long antagonist.

On the other hand large numbers expected Labour to lose Stoke and it did not, in spite of a UKIP challenge and an ultra Brexit local electorate. So Corbyn actually did better than his enemies hoped, most of whom are in the PLP, and his allies feared. He is certainly not out and only a little more down than he was before. The same cannot be said for UKIP. It failed in its bid to break through and take Stoke and came nowhere in Copeland. It is difficult to convince this blog that the party, for UKIP  as a front line player,  is not over.

The political realities are as follows. May cannot call a snap election because we now have fixed term parliaments and the process would be too complicated to navigate through the Commons. But even if she could, Copeland may prove a false dawn. Hard Brexit plays very badly in the South East and the Lib Dems would prove formidable challengers in many seats. The crisis in public services from austerity would be laid bare in a general election campaign as well. Labour might not be strong enough to significantly advance, but as Stokes shows, it is not as weak as the media and anti-Corbyn faction proclaim. The outcome of a national contest might well be a Lib Dem, SNP, Labour led coalition.

What happens next depends on the actual terms of Brexit. What those are depend on elections coming up in France, Italy and Germany, where latest polls show Merkel may be in trouble. Oh, and there is Trump. So the game is not over, even if champagne flows freely in Downing Street today. In fact it has hardly begun.