Brexit: Headwinds Building?

This Blog is beginning to detect a change of political mood about Brexit. There is no doubt that the prophesied disaster in the aftermath of Brexit vote not only did not happen, but was supplanted by a kind of euphoria that the Brits had stood up to be counted and were willing to have a go on their own. Then it was all about legal process and the constitution. And there was May and her no nonsense approach. This ensured a relatively smooth passage of Article 50 through the Commons. Yes there may be a few delays via the Lords, but nothing significant. So we will be all set to go into the negotiations with clear heads and firm purpose by the end of this month. So what is different?

Now or very soon it will be not the politics, but the money and the consequences. Here hard facts determine outcomes, which may not all be good news.  It will get more difficult as people begin to see where the hurt will strike, especially if it strikes them. There have been new warnings from the defeated grandees, Blair, Major and Osborne and this time they were taken a little more seriously than before. There are now many City firms preparing to move outrider footprints to Paris or Frankfurt. Vauxhall’s future production plants in the UK look threatened. Did Nissan understand that May was going for hard Brexit, even over the cliff Brexit? What about this E60 billion bill to meet our ‘commitments’ which nobody told us about before? Apparently the government is now really worried about a fresh Scottish referendum in the face of hard Brexit. What is going to happen in Ireland? What about Gibraltar? The list is piling up.

Maybe there are answers. We hope so. News that top insiders describe various government ‘how to go forward’ meetings as shambolic is not encouraging.