UK Union: Is It Safer?

Politically it looks more at risk because of the majority in Scotland voting Remain. This has presented a strong platform for a strident Nicola Sturgeon to fight for Scotland’s interests and threaten another independence referendum if London does not listen. But whilst politics is the driver of the referendum itself, economics is the driver of how people vote in it. And the economics do not favour Scottish independence. The oil revenues are half what they were last time, which failed because of a muddled approach to the currency  and a bravado agenda for the economy that sometimes defied arithmetic.

Moreover if Scotland broke from England and the remaining UK went for hard Brexit, that would mean a customs border and tariffs on Scottish exports South, which account for twice as much trade as Scottish exports to the EU. Naval shipbuilding and refitting would also migrate south to Portsmouth. So if Scots were nervous last time, they could be more so next time, if there is one. Nothing is for certain; even the EU itself is showing political uncertainties and stresses, both inside the eurozone and outside it, which were not so obvious before. So while the rhetoric from Edinburgh will grow more shrill, the threat may actually diminish. We will have to wait and see.