Trump Loses Big (ly): But Does He Save His Presidency?

There could be no bigger slap in the face for the President than the collapse of the replacement for Obamacare, the more especially because  the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, the Representatives by quite a margin. There are two points worth making without getting involved in the detail of the issue.

The first is that Trump is not really a Republican, nor is he a Democrat. He is America First, but Trump First of All. So his relationship with his adopted party is of convenience rather than blood, whilst its relationship with him is one of sufferance rather than acclaim. So it is hardly surprising if he runs into problems with his legislative agenda. This is made worse by the fact that the Republican party is broken into three factions; moderate mainstream, liberal leaning and conservative right. Unfortunately they all pull in different directions unable to find common cause with each other. This makes the President look weak and raises worries about his ability to deliver on his promises, including his trade deal with the post Brexit UK.

The White House is therefore wise to go hell for leather for his much vaunted tax cuts, especially the extortionate corporation tax which causes vast profits of US companies to be domiciled in tax havens outside America. The easing of the tax burden for middle income families is a smart move. Together they should  start  a growth spurt which will do much to raise Trump’s ratings profile. It will also create a revenue black hole before the fruits of growth deliver and how to finance that could cause a whole lot of problems on the Hill. But it is the only way forward that makes sense for this unique Presidency.

The second point is this. Had the new Healthcare Act got through, it is estimated that some 14 million Americans would lose their cover and not be able to afford the new deal. Most of those seem to have voted for Trump. So if they had been let down and turned away, there could be a Republican rout mid-term. That would face Trump with the Democrats again in control of both Houses. The first thing you would notice would be a lot of Special Prosecutors. So for Trump his healthcare failure is probably a blessing hardly needing a disguise.