Trump Strikes: What Now?

It goes without saying that this Blog, like the whole world, was shocked and repelled by the  images of the aftermath of the infamous gas attack on innocent civilians in Syria. It is impossible to understand the motive for this attack by the Assad regime. Militarily it will have little impact because although horrible, it was limited to a single strike. But it is a colossal strategic reverse for Assad and a huge annoyance to his allies and backers, Russia and Iran, who are fuming behind the scenes at having to publicly defend the indefensible. Even the Nazis did not use chemical weapons in conflict. Before the attack the Americans were saying Assad could stay and be part of a peace settlement. After it they say he has to go before there can be one. Before Assad had the political advantage. Now he has lost it.

So it is difficult to fathom what Assad thought he was going to gain and why this Blog would like to see a bit more evidence from the US which makes them certain he did this. I hope and imagine that this involves surveillance, hacking, tacking, drones, satellites and listening processes which are incontrovertible. All of those technologies are light years beyond where they were in 2002. But if today the US has relied on human intelligence which, like the infamous weapons of mass destruction debacle, is flawed or deliberately falsified to set the US on the wrong path, things for America and Trump could yet go very badly wrong.

But assuming that grim scenario is not the case, this bold move by Trump, measured, specific and limited, has, at no cost to American lives and in defence terms very little money, established his Presidency as real and not a reality show, re-asserted America’s world leadership roll, and sent clear messages to Moscow. These are that the attack was not aimed at Russia, evidenced by the fact that she was warned of the strike and specific efforts were made to avoid areas where Russian military were present. But America is now engaged in Syria and Assad cannot now win. Russia, which has more or less had a free hand in Syria since it first intervened has lost control. In future the US will have to be part of the calculation. Moreover there is now no military solution possible short of the obliteration of Syria and a political solution will have to be found.

The format of that will have a different character too. Instead of trying for a brokered agreement among warring factions which cannot agree anything even among themselves, it will be a deal between America, Russia, Iran and Turkey. It will involve a carve up and enforcement process both complex and robust in which Assad will be lucky if he ends up alive and washing the dishes. The driver will be that Moscow fears that a clash between US and Russian forces in the skies over Syria is now very real and that Washington is okay with that. Tillerson’s visit to Moscow will be more productive than people expect.

For Trump, the icing on the cake is an invitation of a state visit to China, following the overshadowed hosting of Xi Jinping, which he has accepted. A bye product is that his visit to the UK is now definitely on, including I expect, his address to Parliament. With just one caveat overall. This President is uniquely unpredictable and spontaneous. By mid-week everything may have gone pear shaped. He certainly gives us a white knuckle ride in his presidential theme park.