US Foreign Policy: A Seismic Shift

This is important and to make it easier for younger adults who do not recall the detail of the Cold War or Pre 9/11 policy, I am going to state the facts, rather than argue the case.

9/11 unhinged America’s judgement and gave life to a misguided theory of democratization through regime change, brought about by armed intervention. This proved calamitous and led to an era of endless fighting, human suffering unknown in modern times and a reduction in Anglo-American influence to its lowest  level post WWII. Trump was elected on a non-interventionist ticket. But he also said, repeatedly, that he was going to keep America safe, expand the military and make America great again. People listened to that and cheered, but they did not hear.

Suddenly comes the chemical attack. This produces an opportunity as well as a provocation. Obama would have dithered and dawdled. Huffed and puffed. Trump ordered an immediate strike. Carefully crafted to send and immensely powerful message, without doing much actual damage, the Russians warned in advance. What next? A nuclear armed and powered naval battle group is sailing to the Korean Peninsular capable of wiping North Korea from the map within an hour. The days of wild threats from Pyongyang are over. In Moscow and Beijing  lights burn 24/7. China and Russia know that they have new and important roles to play, but the era of doing as they like is over. There will be no attempt to run other countries or effect futile regime change. Nor will there be nation building.  But nothing is going to happen to America, its allies or its interests unless Trump says yes. And if he says no and it happens, he will use force at once.

Is this all unexpected? Certainly but the clues were there. All the key posts to do with foreign policy, defense and national security in the Trump administration are held by retired or serving generals. Except for one. The State Department. Here there is a CEO from a multi-national, with a reduced departmental budget and a skeleton personal staff. His job is not to negotiate a deal, but to state the terms. These will only be varied if the attraction of the counter offer is compelling. That is business. But the driver is raw power.

So there we are. It is not the first time people voted for one thing and got another. It happened in GB not all that long ago. Voters elected a housewife and got Thatcher. In America they voted for a wild card and got Trump. Now they learn that you do not snatch the Presidency from the political establishment or make a multi billion dollar fortune just by pinching bottoms and fooling on Twitter. It is obvious when you think about it. But nobody did.