Are The Polls Right? Is Blair Coming Back?

At this stage we do not know. First the polls. They may be correct if the election were held today, but what will happen on June 8th could be another matter. Because between now and then a lot of variables will come into play which are as yet off the public radar or have not yet resolved. Usually the battle lines are clear when an election is called, but this time those lines will move while it is in progress. Moreover we do not yet know whether this election will be only about Brexit, as it will be for some. But if it turns on the economy, austerity and public services, it will be very different and the Tory position will look a lot less secure. And if it is about Brexit, the question of hard or soft Brexit might be decisive. The Lib Dem posture of championing soft Brexit with the right of the people to decide whether to accept the final terms, could be a major headache for the Tories.

If the turnout is in the 60-69 per cent band the Tories look likely to prize Labour moderates towards them. But if there is a high turnout into the 70s, with 5 million non voters coming out to support the anti-establishment Corbyn led Labour party, which its record membership suggests is possible, then the Tories are in deep trouble, because those non-voters will never vote Tory. They might vote UKIP but a full blooded left of centre Labour manifesto will be very tempting for them. Under attack from Labour on  an economy which favours the few, with its cuts to public services and benefits, and from the Lib Dems on a hard Brexit which threatens the prosperity and quality of life of almost everybody, the Tory dream could  very easily fade.

We will need to see the content of the manifestos before we can gain further insight. Meanwhile there is the outcome of the French presidential election coming down the track which could be game changing and the official declaration of the negotiating terms of the EU to be announced at the end of next week. The sudden appearance of the actual bill the UK will face may well cause a stir. And there is something else. If May wins, but not with a thumping majority, instead similar to what she has at present, she will be seen to have lost in the eyes of the world. She will go into the negotiations not stronger, but weaker.

On the other hand if she triumphs and Corbyn falls, there is now standing in the wings just the person to take the Labour leadership, restore the party to order and lead a powerful opposition to every move she makes. Tony Blair. He said as much on the lunchtime radio today. Because Brexit is so big, even this blog will forgive him for Iraq.

So it is not over yet. It could be just beginning.