Finis

Well the debates are over. Last night they all fought their corners. Cameron was at his best so far, Brown was passionate and determined but looked worn out, Clegg held his own in the crossfire. Nobody had a run away win, but neither did anybody crash out. We will have to wait for the weekend polls to see if there has been any significant change but I begin to think maybe not.

I cannot be certain, but I think the Lib Dems have pushed as far as they can and the Tories are about as far as they can get. This  assumes Labour will not fall further.  If I am right ( it would be no surprise if I were wrong), much will now depend on tactical voting and on the ability of the Lib Dems to pull support equally from both parties. If it all comes from Labour from now on, that may help the Tories.

We are also inclined to ignore UKIP, the BNP and the Greens. If UKIP pick up anti-EU Tories, this may help the Lib Dems. A BNP vote may also help the Lib Dems in marginals with Labour, but the Greens may take votes from the Lib Dems. This is not just an election where a credible third party has emerged. It is alo an election where the impact of smaller parties campaigning on issues which arouse much passion, Europe, immigration and the environment, can also impact the outcome in all sorts of difficult to predict swings.

The election remains wide open and impossible to call. I may have gone too far already.