Opininion Poll Caution

The latest poll in the Daily Mail gives Cameron 33, Clegg 32 and Brown 24. Using the BBC seat calculator this gives Con 268, Lab 217 and LD136. There are clear deficiencies in the voting system that on 8 points ahead of Labour in the popular vote the Lib Dems get 81 fewer seats. The trouble with the seat calculators is that they assume uniform swings, whereas there are many regional and local variations, especially with three parties in play.

To test the reliability I applied the outcome of the last general election in percentages of votes to the current calculator to see if there was a variation. The result on the calculator was L 352 C 206 LD 64. This is very close to the actual result of L 355 C 198 LD 62. There have been boundary changes since and there was less tactical voting in 2005 than some people predict now. What effect this will have is not clear. It could give the Tories unexpected gains because the progressive vote is split, but it could equally help Labour if the anti-government vote goes two ways.