Tory Cheer

For the first time for quite a while, there is good news for the Tories. They can now win outright.

It is very subtle. It is not a case of having to get to 40% plus. It is to do with the Lib Dems pulling clear of Labour. A Lib Dem surge now can give Cameron the keys to Number Ten. For example Con on just 38 Lab 23 LD 30 will give Cameron a majority of  20. But the Lib Dem surge must come at Labour’s expense. Mrs Duffy’s decision not to vote must permeate through the ranks of Labour activists. The outcome is to split the anti-Tory vote. This happened in 1983 when the Alliance and Labour between them polled 53% of the votes, giving Thatcher a landslide on 42%.

In the Tories favour is the fact that Cameron has found his feet and their campaign is back on track. We hear little abour esoteric  do it yourself schools and big societies and more about the dangers of a hung parliament, immigration and the need for  ‘compassionate’ cuts to avoid the road to Greece. He did much better in the third debate, appearing calm, collected and focused.

The Lib Dem threat to the Tories has almost certainly reached its peak, as their pro EU and Euro position and a badly presented immigration policy will limit their appeal to core Tory voters. Cameron should ignore Clegg and now turn his fire (having done so too early and too much) on Brown once more, as well as Darling, Milliband and the dark horse, Alan Johnson. He can ignore Blackadder, who is already plotting Brown’s overthrow.

Clegg is in a curious position. His best outcome is for the Tories and Labour to finish fairly close but with neither having a majority. He then will be able to give a majority to either. It does not matter whether Labour or the Tories are in front as long as they are not too far apart. To do this he does not need any more seats than he has already. If the Tories advance too much they may do extravagant deals with the various incarnations of Ulster Unionists to avoid making concessions on electoral reform to Clegg.

The Lib Dems have just gained the endorsement of the two most thoughtful and respected of the national papers, the Observer and the Guardian. The problem is these were previously Labour papers and to achieve his dreams Clegg must not take any more votes from Labour. Votes must from now on come from the Tories. Unfortunately the Lib Dem policy mix appeals only to those Tories whom Thatcher famously dismissed as ‘wets ‘ and Clegg has got those already. This is Cameron’s opportunity. He must go for Labour. With everything. Absolutely everything. Victory is in sight. 

But remember Brown. Battered, bedraggled and bigotgated. His campaign a metaphoric car crash, spectacularly interrupted by a real one. Last in line by every measure yet still proclaiming his message, like some mighty, wounded beast of legend. Beware! Beware! Your jobs! Your Health Service! Your Childrens’ Education! Your Care in Old Age!  This Goliath of British politics for the last thirteen years, written off time and again, so unpopular there is little point in recording the figures,  is still out there. David has now to deal the final blow. It is not enough to rely on Mrs Duffy.

In the last days the road to victory is open for the Tories. Ironically the Clegg’s success can cost the Lib Dems their dreams. Labour has to hang onto its core vote. In this three party fight the issue is, can Brown be truly beaten? In the final battle Clegg is Cameron’s ally, but Cameron is Clegg’s enemy.