So who won?

If you take a simple view, it is Cameron. But it is not simple. The irony of it all is that although the LibDems failed altogether to capitalise as much as polls suggested they would post the first TV debate and their figures were the most truly unexpected and disappointing of all, Clegg has emerged with the balance. As this blog has said repeatedly and from before the Clegg phenomenon, balance is power.

If Clegg had won over a hundred seats, many from  Labour, the Tories would now have a majority. The Lib Dems would be celebrating and Clegg would be a hero, but  nothing more would have happened. This way the Lib Dems will be able to gain concessions from the Tories, although I doubt Cameron has the authority in his own party to deliver on electoral reform. Labour, on the other hand will give Clegg anything he asks for, possibly even Brown’s scalp. Clegg is quite simply the most powerful Liberal since Lloyd George. He needs to rise to the occasion and get the benefit. His campaign, particularly the last ten days, did not come up to his new level. This time he must do better. 

On the subject of democratic legitimacy Clegg punches well above the weight of his seats in terms of popular vote. He pushes the Tories from 10.7 million to 17.5 million and Labour from 8.6 to 15.5 million. This is a huge lift, giving any coalition a real majority in votes. This would please markets and make tough decisions less subject to challenge.