North Korea: China’s View

Everyone knows what America thinks, even if the emphasis sometimes varies somewhat between Pentagon and White House. But China’s view is less well understood and it is China which  holds the key to the North Korea nuclear crisis. In fact China is as fed up as everybody else with its neighbour, but has a lot less influence over Pyongyang that we think on this issue. Put simply Kim Jon Un will allow nothing to halt his determination to secure his state from hostile action to effect regime change by the United States and its allies. So even if China were to halt all trade with North Korea, although the NK people might starve, the leadership would not and the military position would remain unchanged.

China does not want fighting on the Korean peninsular. It does not want a war which would leave South Korea victorious and ruling over a united Korea in the style of unified Germany. It does not want North Korea to collapse into a failed state Middle Eastern style, leading to a diaspora of refugees pouring across its borders. It wants to reduce the military involvement of the United States in the region, not increase it.

But Beijing certainly does not want a nuclear armed neighbour without any structural political system underpinning its government, which could be relied upon to restrain the current mercurial leader or any future hothead. China’s aim is peace between North and South and a demilitarized Korean peninsular. Few anywhere, even in America, can disagree with such an ambition. China needs to redouble its efforts to this end in a way that convinces Pyongyang of its determination to enable a fair settlement. America, while keeping up the military pressure to convince Kim Jon Un he cannot win any more than he already has and is now at the limit of his reach, must give China the chance to do that.