A Weekend of May

It is an extraordinary collapse of government authority when almost the only topic of political conversation is the survival of the prime minister. So having said most of what was useful in yesterday’s post, here are just a few more thoughts.

Talk of leadership challenges and stalking horses are rubbish. For years now the Tory party operates under rules quite different to the Thatcher era. Nobody can challenge the leader. If 15% of Tory MPs write to the chairman of the 1922 Committee asking for a vote of confidence in the leader, it will be held, but not for any other reason.

If  May won she would carry on. If she lost she would resign as prime minister. She would not be entitled to stand for the leadership again and only on her resignation could nominations open for a successor. Through a knock out process of voting among MPs, the field is reduced to two, at which point the party membership get the chance to make the final choice. It is a cumbersome system in opposition. In government, in the midst of the Brexit mess of stalled negotiations and unbridgeable gaps amounting almost to a national emergency, which it could shortly become with deteriorating economic prospects, three months of hustings  is just not a runner. Neither is another leader elected unopposed.

If May goes, her government falls with her. Either there will be a general election or the Queen will send for Corbyn. There will be turmoil in the markets, although much of the uncertainty is already factored in, so it will be contained. Much more significant is the prospect that Brexit will collapse. That is why the Brexiteers, having plotted May’s downfall for months, are now trawling the studios praising her to the skies. If she is a real leader she will take the opportunity to sack the lot of them from her cabinet. She has a big cross party majority in the Commons for a sensible Brexit or none at all.