Catalonia: The Independence Dream

The problem of the dream of independence for small countries absorbed into larger ones, or nations of people in a region split between two or more countries, is that achieving independence requires a large degree of unanimity if it is to succeed. It needs the backing of the country of which it is a part and it needs a democratic mandate which will be decisive and beyond challenge. That means something in the order of a 70% turnout and a 66% vote for independence. Because unless there is a reasonable degree of unanimity upon the nature and identity of a country, independence will fail.

Only 42% of those entitled to vote did so. 90% said yes to independence. That is 37.8 overall, nowhere near a mandate. Now there have been huge demonstrations against a break away, banks are moving their headquarters out of Catalonia, the EU has said it will not recognise an independent Catalonia and Spain has said if it happens by declaration, it will invoke Article 151 of the Constitution and impose direct rule.

Even if it is declared, independence will not happen. Because to declare it is one thing, but to be recognised to have it is quite another. Without recognition it is worthless. The best way forward is a time for reflection followed by a legally authorised referendum. That will vote No and it will be over.