Hard Brexit? The Tory Iceberg Dead Ahead

From the beginning it went wrong. Cameron called a referendum and lost it. May came to power and failed to master her brief, arguing and dithering for months before triggering Article 50. When she did so she offered high rhetoric and even loftier aspiration in an initial situation which required fine detail and careful analysis of a legal position which offered little room for manoeuvre. This was because her Cabinet was hopelessly split between hard Brexiteers and Remainers. The negotiations opened and at once stalled. To give herself greater authority to deal with the Brexiteers, she called and election and lost her majority, reducing, not increasing, her authority.

There has followed a litany of mis-steps. Grenfell Tower, Florence falling pretty flat, Boris AWOL, the Conference disaster and various EU slap downs. So now she has thrown caution to the winds and told everybody to  prepare for a very hard Brexit. There is however a problem. There is no majority in the country or Parliament for that. So when it comes to a vote in the Commons the government will be defeated and her disastrous premiership will be over. As will the Tory grip on power. After a generation of faulty navigation it will finally meet its iceberg.

Unless something else happens. In today’s unstable politics anything can.