May: A Political Transformation

When this blog was last active on a daily basis, the May government was in trouble on almost every front and GB was more or less ignored on the international stage. Then came Salisbury. At first it was thought that the attack was a sign of Britain’s weakness through its preoccupation with Brexit. Now it is difficult to recall a time since the Cold War, or even during it, when this country exerted so much influence over its allies in the West. Even as the EU summit began many commentators thought there may be some words but few deeds.

In the event there was an unprecedented recall of the EU’s ambassador to Moscow. This has been followed up by expulsions of Russian diplomats in 14 of the leading EU states and an eye catching 60 diplomats expelled from Washington. Trump, thought to be lukewarm, has very much changed his tune. This certainly looks like Global Britain in action.

May is now in a far stronger position within the Tory party  as prime minister to push through the very kind of sensible Brexit that hard-core leavers hate. She also has a new respect among EU members which could translate into concessions to bind the UK to Europe in a format easier for her to sell in parliament.  It might even translate into healthy Tory leads in the opinion polls. But in the end it will all come down to whether people feel better off. If they do her survival till 2020 looks a lot more certain and her re-election a real possibility. If they don’t, world influence will not stave off an electoral pasting. As Churchill found in 1945.