Syria Strike: Now What?

There is an argument, put forward by the government and agreed with France and the US,  that if you bomb a few helicopters and a factory or two, this will be a price which the Assad regime will not want to pay again, so it will not use chemical weapons in future. Really?

The strategic rationale for this air strike to anybody qualified above kindergarten level in warfare science, is non existent. The political rationale is very different. The West has pursued a series of calamitous wars since 9/11, none of which it won and all of which simmer on. It also appears in disarray, with a maverick US President expounding trade and environmental polices his allies disagree with and engulfed at home by a peculiar investigation about collusion with the Russians to beat Hilary. The UK is caught up in arguments and uncertainties over Brexit and its consequences, Germany is weakened by an influx of refugees on a titanic scale and the political rise of the far right, Italy is without a government, the Eurozone has stabilized but its systemic problems remain unresolved, Spain has a crisis with Catalonia and Hungary has decided to fence itself in. Everybody thinks NATO is a good idea but only America, Britain and France are prepared to pay for it.

So who can wonder that Russia may have thought, following its rejected overtures to join with, and become a partner of, the West, leading it to set a new course going its own and a rather different way, that it could go wherever it liked. Things like bumping off spies and traitors overseas and turning a blind eye to Assad and his chemical horrors, seemed neither here nor there, especially set against the re-emergence of Russia as a world power and the power in the Middle East axis around Syria. Crimea was an unexpected bonus from a botched Western overthrow of a legitimately elected government in Kiev.

The extraordinary diplomatic response of the West, led by the UK, to the apparently bungled assassination attempt of the Skripals in Salisbury and the joint attack by its three military powers on Syria, is a demonstration that actually, when it comes to the crunch, the West is still very much there and in one piece. A point of which the savvy Kremlin will take note.

This Blog is and will remain very much against this futile and dangerous military action and does not subscribe to the view, wildly held by people who have never been on the receiving end of a war, that killing people saves lives. But if you support the attack and were trying to find a reason why, now you have it.

Have a nice weekend.