Tory Government: A Lincoln Moment

A house divided against itself cannot stand. This is one of Lincoln’s enduring sayings. Lincoln and Churchill are perhaps the most often quoted politicians, because they said complicated things simply and promoted challenges  which had to be faced. Our present class of politicians talk nonsense most of the time. They have a phobia about confronting reality. There are a few exceptions. Jeremy Corbyn and Ken Clarke. Vince Cable too perhaps.

The days of the May government are shortening. It is divided on the key issue of the day, Brexit, the negotiations for which are, on all the major sticking points, no further forward than on day one. Within this division there is open warfare between Downing Street advisers who struggle to protect the beleaguered May and ministers in the cabinet who have constitutional responsibility for policy which the advisers, using the prime minister’s authority, seek to usurp. That was Thatcher’s road to ruin and it could well be May’s.

All the solutions put forward by the UK which avoid remaining in the customs union and the single market are either unworkable or unacceptable to the EU. In Ireland a solution which puts the EU border in the Irish Sea will bring down the UK government as the DUP would refuse to vote for it in a confidence motion. Any solution which imposes any sort of border between Ireland and Ulster will collapse any otherwise agreed Brexit deal, as it will be vetoed by the Republic, fully supported by all 26 EU states, the Commission and Council of Ministers. The no deal consequence of that scenario will be vetoed by Parliament. The Lords have already rejected it and there is no majority in the Commons for a suicidal cliff edge leap.

So May and the cabinet are boxed in on all sides. Festering around them are Windrush, NHS funding, Universal Credit, cuts in policing, collapsing court cases because of evidence non-disclosure and a multitude of other pressing aspects of daily life.  Balancing the government’s daily budget has been achieved on the pattern of a poor family which can either afford fuel or food, but not both. Soon the cold and the hungry will unite with the exasperated just managing and those doing well but who fear that soon even they could suffer. And a Brexit deal will have to be signed.

Then it will all be over for the Tory government full stop and the Tory party for a generation.