Trump and May: As the Dust Settles

It is too early to make a meaningful judgement on the Trump visit and or the government’s situation after the publication of its Brexit plans and resignations. But it is possible to have a few thoughts.

The Sun Article.  If you listen to the video, this blog is in agreement with much of what Trump says, except for the bit about Boris making a good prime minister. It was an easy low key gossip over coffee or whatever. But when that is transcribed into a newspaper article and published in the middle of a spectacular function as part of a semi-state visit, it becomes politically nuclear. Trump was too close to the epicentre when it went off and it damaged him, as much as his target, May.

The Chequers Love In. Trump apologised and rowed back. May forgave. But the differences remained because they are based on practical facts of implementation, agreement and compromise, not upon rhetorical flourish. So the phrase about ‘do what you like as long as we can trade’ is an elegant way of saying go for a hard Brexit.

The Brexit White Paper. This is, as previously posted, a step forward because at last the government has staked out a detailed plan to inaugurate meaningful negotiations with the EU. It could very well be that the EU is more sympathetic to May because of her humiliation by Trump and will be a little more flexible than might otherwise have been the case. But the plan is flawed in various ways and unworkable in others, so the final version will have to made into a runner, which could end up being approved by the EU and rejected by the UK.

The Government. Is now in the process of collapse. May does not have a majority in the Commons for any Brexit plan so far advanced and will not be able to govern at all for much longer. The Tory party is not just split on Brexit but the two factions are now at war with each other. According to the latest polls the country has lost confidence in May and thinks the whole Brexit process has been mishandled. Labour is edging ahead. So even if she could win a vote of confidence with the help of the DUP, the government would be paralysed. A change of leadership is impossible in such a situation and even if it could be done, the same problems would remain. A general election is coming down the track. And it is likely to carry Corbyn into Number Ten.

Monday. All of the above will move to the inside pages compared with what is coming from the Putin Trump meeting in Helsinki. My prediction for the good news, is a cyber security pact to be negotiated covering hacking and cyber warfare. My prediction for the big drama, really explosive, is a pull back of Russian forces from Eastern Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreement, in exchange for a pull back of NATO forces in the Baltic states and a reduction in US troop numbers in Europe. Crimea will stay as it is.

Oh, there is also the Piers Morgan interview with Trump, recorded on Air Force One,  to be broadcast on Monday. It will either throw the government a lifeline or drive a nail into its coffin.