Cameron’s Mistake

Now the new Chief  Secretary’s financial affairs are all across the Telegraph. I do not intend to dissect or discuss the expense and taxation rules which are now the subject of claim and counter claim. Whatever the outcome the coalition is damaged.

There are two elements to the damage. This Blog recommended Cameron appoint a big hitter from the Tory benches to fill the vacancy left by David Laws. There was good reason for this. The Laws issue was a potential coalition disaster, which could be contained only if Cameron showed very tough leadership. On the one hand he had to appoint a known ruthless cutter to the financial hatchet job (there is plenty of  softer balance in the cabinet) and on the other he had to send a signal to the Lib Dems that he was not pleased they had messed up. His own backbenchers, who now outnumber their Lib Dem counterparts by a ratio of nearly ten to one, need reassurance, as do the markets. But the coalition partners need a signal too.

The Lib Dems were not prepared for government because they under-estimated the generalship of their leader. They therefore arrived without having conducted a ruthless analysis of  all their MPs’ expenses as the Tories had done, at least according to the Telegraph and the mounting evidence. Cameron needed to wield the stick. Instead he did the decent thing and put the interests of the coalition above the strength of the government. He has signalled that he is going to sustain the coalition come what may, but in doing so he has raised a question of its ability to govern.

Outside the sympathetic and forgiving Westminster village, there remains a very angry public and very nervous financial markets. This coalition looks a good deal less secure than it did. The pressure on Cameron to go for an election before the constitutional reforms are effected may become irresistible. The prospects of big Tory gains to give a comfortable majority may look just too tempting. A weak, scandal disrupted Government a la Major is not an option now.

The Lib Dems face  their greatest opportunity as members of this government, but they face oblivion if it fails because of their dirty linen.