Brexit: Government in Turmoil

It is now impossible to see a way forward or predict what will happen.  On the one hand May declares she is 95% there for a good deal, but on the other she is faced with her own party split in every direction, able to agree about nothing and resorting to the language of gangland. On the other hand it is very unlikely that she will be able to get any deal through parliament, because of a lack of consensus on what would be good for the country. Members are vociferous about what they are against, but woolly and unreal about what they are for.

On top of that comes the infamous border issue with Northern Ireland. There are only two solutions which will actually work. Neither is acceptable enough to go forward. Either the whole UK stays in the customs union and the single market or Northern Ireland, which voted Remain, dumps the DUP and joins up with the South to create a united Ireland. This is bound to happen sooner or later anyway. Remember how impossible a united Germany once seemed?

Now we move onto the EU and what it collectively can accept. Unlike the unitary single state of the UK, now sundered politically in a fashion unknown for centuries, the EU 27 stand firm, united and of one mind. And whatever waffle comes out of London about close and enduring relationships, it will never agree to anything that compromises any part of its Union. So it looks as if we are already on the cliff edge. The government may survive for years or it may be gone within a week. Parliament may come to its senses or it might be forced to delegate the decision to the people in a second referendum.

So the two most likely outcomes now are that either we crash out with no agreement into legal mayhem.

Or we have a cup of tea, clear our heads and crash back in.