Malcolm Blair Robinson

Crisis: What Now with May? Or Corbyn?

December 19, 2018 By Malcolm Blair-Robinson

There is emerging a kamikaze strategy from No.10.  Ramp up preparations for No Deal, with blood curdling warnings; oppose a second referendum; exploit the fear of losing Brexit altogether. The calculation is that constituency pressure on MPs will change their minds over Christmas. Remainers will back May to avoid a hard Brexit. Leavers will back May to avoid losing Brexit. Will it work? Possibly. Possibly not.

Nothing can be predicted. May no longer leads a government in the conventional sense. Her cabinet is split in three separate directions. Unity after meetings lasts about an hour. The Tory party leads the government, but is split into so many factions that count has been lost.  May is no longer in control, but neither is anybody else. So she is trying to ride the storm demasted and the rudder gone, in the hope that the wind and currents will beach her on the land where the Bong Tree grows, i.e her deal is passed by the House of Commons.

Corbyn is looking for his own Bong Tree. He has resisted calls for a No Confidence vote because he knows the Brexiteers, including the DUP, are terrified of either a general election or a second referendum, so they will prop the government up and Labour will lose the vote. But if we are heading over the cliff to a disorderly Brexit, there could be enough Remain MPs in the Tory party to put their country first and bring the government down. Four have already declared. The DUP might be cutting their own electoral throats if they back the government,  because a cliff edge crash would be a disaster for their NI constituents , most of whom voted remain. So they might at least abstain. And that could be Corbyn’s moment.

As for business, the poor, the vulnerable, the young and the over 16 million who think Brexit is barmy, what about them? Like fielders waiting for catches from a spinner, they are hovering for an opportunity to take power. Make no mistake about that. The question is who will they give it to?

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