Cross Party Talks: May’s Problem

Many commentators and this blog have for long castigated May for not reaching out to the opposition parties, especially to Labour, earlier. Had she done so at the beginning everything would now be sorted, or so we proclaimed. But recent events reveal a much deeper fissure in May’s power base, her party in parliament, than was clear in 2016. At that point it was accepted that there were remainers and leavers in both the main parties and it was assumed there would be a coming together in the business of leaving the EU, widely thought to be a simple process in which we could pick the bits we wanted from an a la carte menu. The EU would all be at each other’s throats anyway so we could pick them off capital by capital.

In the event this turned out to be the greatest collective political misjudgement in our country’s entire recorded history. The EU set the terms, held fast to them and remained united up to and beyond the eleventh hour. This has shown up a fissure in our own structure which makes almost everything unmanageable. The Conservative and Unionist party, to give it the full title, is actually two parties, diametrically opposed not just on the big issue but on the basic ideology of what the party stands for. There is a right wing which is nationalist, anti-foreigner, ideological, free market, primacy of the individual, pretty selfish and very self destructive. There is a left wing which is one nation, internationalist, pragmatic, emollient and ever seeking common ground for the common good. It believes in society and seeks to ever widen the notion of opportunity for all.

The membership of the split Tory party is almost all to the right, but two thirds of the MPs are to the left. May actually has fewer of her own MPs voting with her than Corbyn on very many elements of Brexit. There is no doubt that she wants to compromise with Labour, but if she does so and loses the votes of the ERG and the DUP, she will still fail, even with the majority of Labour votes, to have certainty that the resulting deal will pass. If it did scrape through she could then face defeat in the enabling legislation to follow. Labour meanwhile has its own hinterland of instability, particularly on the referendum 2 issue and can only advance by very modest strides towards May’s red lines.

So in the end these talks could get nowhere and we will be back to more indicative, but this time binding, votes. But if it comes to that there is no certainty of any plan gaining a majority. That leaves just two options, if as we assume some further delay is agreed by the EU, which now holds all the cards. A second referendum or a general election. Yet such is the disarray in the country, either could fail to be conclusive. So this blog now favours option Number 3. Revoking Article 50. If the unexpected occurs in Brussels tonight and a further extension is refused, that should happen before 11pm on Friday. That is within May’s prerogative power. Would she dare use it?