Trump and Boris

It comes as no surprise that Trump has intervened, against diplomatic protocol, in domestic UK politics, by backing Boris for PM. Nor that John Bolton wants the UK out of Europe. The US is short on Western allies at the moment. Having the UK detached from Europe and back under US dominance would be handy. The two together make a combination which is the biggest in everything except population. It is also clear that there are going to be more shocks during Trump’s controversial visit to the UK.

Whether this will be good for Boris depends on where you are in the political and generational firmament. It will help him with Tory members, making his election certain unless he blows it. That he might do so, is not unlikely. But if he does make it to leader with Trump’s support, he will pay a price in any general election campaign among young and remain voters who will hold the keys to the outcome.

Once again this blog protests that, for the first time with a party in power, an external electorate, outside parliament, is in effect choosing the next PM. To describe the position in which the Queen is thus put as constitutionally shakey, is to understate the case. The formalities will, of course be impeccable as May will remain in power until the change of Tory leader is made, so that she can advise the Queen whom to send for. But even that poses a problem.  Because everyone knows that Boris’s flagship legislation will be a No Deal Brexit. And that cannot get through because even leading Tory ministers are prepared to bring down their own government to prevent it. So the Queen will be sending for someone who cannot govern. That is  constitutionally vexatious at the very least.

When Callaghan took over from Wilson, Major from Thatcher, Brown from Blair and May from Cameron, only MPs were involved in the choice. And all those governments had a majority in the House of Commons at the time of the changeover, without coalition or confidence and supply support. So although the potential for challenge was there, by ending the contest within parliament, any potential legal challenge was avoided. This time might not be so easy.

The Tory party has no majority and it cannot secure one for any version of its flagship policies. Legally it might well be argued that it is now Her Majesty’s constitutional duty to send for Corbyn, or at least send for the Tory in parliament most likely to be able to govern as of now. The Tory party in the country can elect whoever they like to be leader but in present circumstances that is constitutionally irrelevant and supported by precedent. Chamberlain remained leader of his party for several months after Churchill became PM in 1940. In fact he only succeeded to lead the Tory party because of the vacancy caused by Chamberlain’s death.

The truth is this is all a terrible mess.