Boris Bounce plus The Corbyn Factor

As expected there is a Boris bounce to give the Tories between  two and  five point leads in various opinion polls. This would not, with the Lib Dems, Brexit Party and Greens in play, give him a majority in parliament. Almost more significant, any other leader than Corbyn would give Labour a major lead and potential for an outright victory with a working majority. So should Labour set about dumping Corbyn overtly, because the covert campaign in continuous action under varying formats, since the day he was elected the first time has been, other than to destabilize the party, without effect?

First a quick look at the Boris bounce. The relief that the colourless May with her school teacher strictures has gone at last, and her fumbling government has been broken up and scattered, is felt in every corner of the land, regardless of the politics of  people feeling a dead weight has been lifted from their backs. The ebullient Boris, in a blizzard of unfinished sentences, exudes optimism and can do, of a kind not seen for, well, a very long time. The promises fly in all directions. But when the time comes to explain how everything is to be paid for, then things could turn sour. When actual details of how, when, where and with what become critical, maybe the bounce will become rolling about out of control. Or maybe Boris and his ministers will have enough, if not all, of the answers. Only in this latter scenario does Corbyn’s electoral appeal matter. If Boris continues to barnstorm only, his electoral appeal will decline. Fast. And Labour will win with or without Corbyn.

Of the two, although he lacks the glamour and panache, Corbyn is the political heavyweight. Not only did he win the leadership of his party twice, but with four times as many votes as Boris. Corbyn has built Labour into the biggest political party in Europe and won back nearly five million working class votes to the party by promoting policies which grapple head on with the dysfunction of the current economic model, the failures in public services, the inefficiency of privately owned public utility monopolies, and above all the priority of sorting out the housing mess and increasing levels of poverty at the base of the economy. This has transformed the political conversation, moved the centre ground of politics to the left and had a greater impact on the direction of political travel than  under any other politician since margaret Thatcher.

And Corbyn has done all this as Leader of the Opposition. He can pull crowds as big as Boris, often bigger. Labour now has a doorstep election army greater than all the other parties put together. Maybe it is time for him to step aside. On that question this blog is neutral. But those whose task it is to decide, need to think very carefully about what they do, where they are and why.