Brexit: How No Deal Can Still Be Done.

The government appears very gung ho about its ability to leave the EU on October 31st without a deal, when that option has been blocked by parliament. Something is going on behind the scenes and I think the reason  Boris keeps saying that he will obey the law, but we are leaving on October 31st, deal or no deal, whatever laws parliament has passed,  is this. Under the Lisbon Treaty Article 50 allows a departing country the option of a Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with the EU, but also allows the departing country to leave without a deal if none has, by the departure date, been secured.

EU Law trumps British law while we are still in the EU, so any law passed by parliament to ban No Deal, has no effect in EU law.  When Boris says he will obey the law, he means EU law. The options for the opposition to stop this dash into the unknown are either for parliament to rescind Article 50, or to remove the Boris government through a vote of  No Confidence.

It is possible that the extension request element of the Benn Act might be deemed lawful by the Supreme Court, but it could certainly be appealed to the ECJ by Boris and Co if they remain in power. Many, even most, would see that as an extraordinarily cynical manoeuvre, but a government hell bent on a Halloween Brexit, no matter what the cost, would see it as rather clever. Especially Cummings.

What has thus far been  a procedural stand-off in Parliament, with government in the conventional sense paralysed, is about to become a titanic constitutional fight such as we have never before seen. It is a fact the EU law trumps British law, so Boris could be on course for victory in the Brexit crisis, unless he and his government fall. The test is now for the opposition. Fail it and they will fail period.

Not only are we marching to a disorderly Brexit, but also to something close to a constitutional collapse. To prevent this, all the various parties and factions opposed to inflicting the worst of all worlds on the country, must stop grandstanding and unite to bring the government down in a vote of confidence, proposed by the Leader of the Opposition, ie Corbyn.  The Queen will then send for him as her opposition leader. He seems not to have the numbers to lead a government of national unity tasked to organise a choice of a sensible Brexit or staying in the EU, to be made by the people via some combination of a referendum and a general election. Provided opposition forces have agreed upon a candidate they can all support, Corbyn can advise the Queen to send for that person.

This needs to be done very soon, or it will come down to either going over the cliff, or the last minute rescinding of Article 50. Both are traumatic.