Trump’s Troubles: How Bad Is It?

By a normal measure very bad. But for Trump not so bad. It is the very nature of his presidency that the electoral college votes of almost all heartland America went to Trump. They did not vote for an honourable and righteous man but for the very antithesis.

They backed Trump, not because he was one of those squeaky clean members of the political class which had let them down, but because he spoke their language, understood their problems, articulated their fears and was willing to do whatever it took to change the political agenda in their favour. Moreover he shared their faults and committed their sins. But that was exactly why he would do the job they wanted. And by and large he has. The economy has boomed, rustbelt jobs have returned, stuff they worry about is being fixed. It is America, meaning blue collar America, First.

Yet the China Trade War seems to be getting out of hand, slowing the world economy. There is confusion over American foreign policy with accusations of stabbing allies in the back, an impeachment inquiry which could get really serious and an increasingly impulsive and at times irrational Twitter output. There is no infrastructure renewal as promised. Healthcare is a major worry unresolved. And November 2020 is just over a year away. Trump’s ratings are still good, but they are slipping. That slip could become a slide.

So the verdict is that, even for Trump, his troubles are in the danger zone. It is the case that with Trump, it is always all about Trump. Therefore it is up to him. He can easily make his troubles better. But on past form it is very likely that he might make them a whole lot worse. Nobody knows how he will deal with it all. Not even his closest advisers. Not even Trump himself.