The Christmas Election

In normal elections there is a general feel at the start which way they are likely to go. This time no commentator would dare to predict the outcome. But as a starter post of what are likely to be many, let me leave you with some themes.

In England and Wales, if the election is dominated by the single issue of Brexit, the Tories believe they will not only win, but win a majority. But if the election comes to be dominated by the state of ordinary people’s lives, austerity, public services, fat cats, climate change and growing inequality in society, Labour believe they will win. And they almost certainly will. If Brexit dominates, but in a negatives sense, in other words people have had enough of it and want out from the apparently irreconcilable Brexit arguments, then the Liberal Democrats will cause havoc in the two main parties. If the Lib Dems win a significant number of seats, they will make Brexit near impossible to deliver.

In Scotland the drive will be independence, with the evil of Brexit the issue to resolve by backing the SNP, who are likely to win back many of the seats they lost in 2017. In Northern Ireland it will not be about basic Brexit, it is a  Remain nation, but about the all Ireland economy and way of life. There will be a likely tilt towards Irish unity and away from old style unionism.

But the most likely element of Election 2019 will be the unexpected. In other words anything can happen and for sure it will.