Election 2019: Time To Come Off The Fence

With a few days to go it is time for undecided voters to make up their minds how they are going to cast their vote and time for tribal voters to reaffirm their loyalty to their party, or to desert it for a greater good. It is also time for this blog to stick its neck out for the benefit of loyal readers. So here goes.

At the moment conventional reading of conventional polls indicate a working majority for Johnson, the size depending on the poll. Corbyn can still close or narrow the gap if over the last week reforming the economy, in favour of the many, edges ahead of Brexit, in the public consciousness of what they are voting for. But so close to the day, that is quite a big if.

But it is also the key. For if Brexit dominates, tactical voting will be used, possibly more than in any previous election, having peculiar and unexpected consequences in different parts of the country for different reasons. That could easily result in a lot of seats changing hands, but with thrilling gains for major parties here, being cancelled by shock losses there. So we end up again with the same arithmetic in parliament, but new faces. In that event if Johnson does not have a majority it could end with Corbyn in Downing Street at the head of a minority government backed by all the remain components of the new parliament. Because in the end  Remain leaning parties will work with Labour but not with Boris. He is on his own and has to triumph over all comers.

He thinks he can. His backers hope he can, but are getting nervous. If you look at totals of Tory plus Brexit party against Lab/Lib Dem, Green, the latter are always just ahead. Meanwhile in camp Corbyn hopes remain high that Labour’s final advance will peak on polling day and spring a 2017 style surprise.

There is still everything to play for.