Labour, Trump and the Changes to Come.

The election of Trump, not by some quirk of electoral college distribution, but with a popular vote majority, 312 EC votes, the Senate and likely the House, was unforeseen by everyone and a political earthquake for the West.

Last time Trump’s Presidency began in chaos with no plan and very little understanding of how Federal government worked in the US. This time there is a plan and an army of specially trained new staff to run each of the major departments of state according to  trending ideas of right wing populist nationalism for which his country voted with such enthusiasm.

The plan is to dismantle the American Empire, withdraw behind tariffs and trade barriers, become once again isolationist and stop paying for Europe’s defence. He will do a deal with Putin to end the Ukraine war and at some point, while giving Israel an apparent free hand, he will surround it with red lines.

He likes dictators and strongmen and will do deals with them in the interests of his new American dream and everyone else will have to like it or lump it. He will make America great again, but on his terms and to his image. And that is what the voters have mandated him to do. In the end it will be more measured and nuanced, that is Trump’s style, but the principles will remain. Clearly the impact on the dollar, as well as the diplomatic crises which would follow the headlong implementation of every promise made by Trump in the election campaign, would be severe.

But to the West, which for far too long has regarded America as its paymaster and protector, it will be a tsunami of change  for which it is unprepared, politically, economically and militarily. Adjustments to economic models and foreign policy will have to be made to accommodate the reality of Trump and the uncertainties of his style of isolationism and raw power. America first is the slogan. Trump first is the fact. He would say there is no difference.

For Labour, unsettled by aspects of Downing Street’s administration, the Reeves budget and the slaughter in Gaza, this is all a bit overwhelming. But it is not all bad news. Because very little of the status quo is working properly  at any level and an  audit of everything could reveal the greatest opportunities for growth and prosperity for the UK since the end of WW2.

But that is beyond the scope of this blog and to explain I will need to settle down to producing at the very least a dissertation, maybe even a book. I am not sure I want to. I will think about it.