Afghan Leaks

At one level there is a worry with this sort of thing that lives will be put at risk. At another there is a sense of annoyance that so much is kept secret when the secrecy is needed to prevent criticism and embarrassment. These revelations tell us little we did not know, more how much the authorities think we do not know.

It all underlines core principles of military occupation. This can only be achieved successfully by foreign forces if the vast majority of the population supports an effective government at whose consent a foreign force is present, or if the country has first been conquered. This is what happened when the North occupied the South after the Civil War, when the Allies occupied Germany in 1945 and when America occupied Japan the same year. It did not happen in Vietnam.

The adventure in Afghanistan is doomed because the government is corrupt and incompetent with little authority beyond its fortified compound in Kabul, while large sections of the population have either joined the Taliban, support them or go along with them. In many aspects of government they are less corrupt and more efficient. Most important they are Afghan. The so called security forces presently being trained will be required, when NATO finally goes, to fight not a foreign invader, but there own countrymen. This will never work, the more so because there is a long tradition in Afghanistan of militias switching sides. Karzai’s army will be seen as an instrument of oppression and his illiterate police force will probably be used as one. Meanwhile Bin Laden  and Al Qaeda continue to operate wherever they choose.

The most useful thing about these leaks may be the fact that the supporters of the war will be universally exposed for their lack of judgement and will therfore be bound, as a condition of continued political survival, to get real.