NATO Summit

This was a success on two fronts. The first and by far the most important was the new accord with Russia following the announcement of the new style sea based missile shield for Europe, with which a relieved Russia has agreed to cooperate. Both Cameron and Obama see eye to eye with the need to end historic enmity with Russia, which is not only a natural ally of Europe, but has come to its aid three times in modern history to help defeat Napoleon, the Kaiser and Hitler. Fear of the old repressive Soviet Union creates natural suspicion among the old Eastern bloc states, but this is historic rather than real. Equally fear of NATO encirclement is the traditional fear and doctrine of the Russian military.

Moving from these out of date positions to a modern relationship will benefit everyone and gradually trust will return. Russia is also willing to assist with the NATO effort in Afghanistan, though not with troops on the ground. This brings us to the second piece of good news. Reading between and beneath the lines of the official communique and the political rhetoric, NATO now accepts that its mission is going to peter out without any decisive conclusion and, significantly, President Karzai is losing confidence in the military project. He is beginning to look to a deal with the Taliban as a way forward. Whether he will get it and whether such a corrupt and ineffective government can possibly survive with or without a deal is open to question.

The key point is that it no longer matters. From now on we have to build a strategy of containment so that whatever goes on in that tribal country and its surrounds, stays there and does not pose a threat around the world. There are many ways of doing that and none that have a chance of working involve combat troops from Nato.

Gradually events will move in that direction. The star of General Petraeus is falling. That is why he was sent there. President Obama is a much sharper cookie than the Pentagon thought.