Sarah Palin

This unconventional politician, initially regarded in Europe as a bad joke, whose ignorance of the world and naivete were literally astonishing, is emerging as a powerful icon on the American political playing field and may run for President. It is therefore time to consider her as a serious contender and assess her potential.

Circumstances and Barak Obama have brought about a profound change in America’s world position. The circumstances are economic. The Western model drove into the ditch and the U.S was in the driving seat. The scale of public and private debt across the western economies may, in some cases, be technically too big ever to be repaid. The money is all in Asia and Russia and Brazil. China is now the second biggest economy but it may already be the most powerful. It, not the U.S., is now calling the tune. This was evident to all those who took off their rose tinted glasses at the G.20.

Meanwhile in foreign policy Obama and Clinton have struggled to repair America’s reputation overseas and salvage  harsh reality out of dogma in the use of its military assets. Afghanistan, as set out in the previous Blog, is unravelling as a winnable project. Iran is emerging as a key player in Iraq and is hovering in the wings as a potential player in the tribal areas of Pakistan and in Afghanistan too. Indeed it may be the key to some acceptable level of stability in these areas. Relations with Russia are on a more productive footing; America needs her help with logistics for the Afghan war and Europe will freeze and the lights go out without Russia’s gas and oil.

All this means that the old values, entrenched since the end of WWII and nurtured since in the Cold War (which the U.S with simplistic boastfulness claimed to have ‘won’ when the reality was much more complex) have been shaken up. In the new values which now ordain the world order and which are, bit by little bit , falling into place, America is no longer the key player. It is a player yes, but there are now many other players. The U.S is one of these, but not the one.

This is not bad news. America is no longer the most reviled nation on earth, as it became after the worldwide sympathy heaped upon it after 9/11, recoiled at the advance of the neo-cons, under one of the worst Presidencies in U.S history. But there is a new problem brewing within its homeland. The economic privations, with their baggage train of unemployment, repossessions and despair, have created a new mood in the country where once again the questions is asked, what is America?  There are two conflicting answers. The United States is and the United States are.

It is to the latter that the bugle of Sarah Palin’s disparate band of hockey moms and neighborhood communities sounds and her banner flutters. Small government, a less powerful presidency, lower taxes, localising the power of government (for which the U.S. under its Constitution has the most advanced and sophisticated democratic system in the world). If these are to be the alternative goods offered on the Republican stall to challenge Obama’s Big State in November 2012, Sarah Palin might be the best choice. The fact that she may not know where London is exactly would not matter, because Americans are now more interested in what goes on at home and are fed up with wars overseas which never end. London would not mind either, because its focus is now to the east. The rest of the world is already focussed there.