North Korea
Once again there is a military flare up, started by the North, often referred to as a hermit state. The West is really at a loss to understand this isolated country which defies everybody, including its main ally, China. Indeed China is allied to the West in wanting to see North Korea stable without a conflict with South Korea.
Korea is one of a small group of international problems which have not budged towards solution over many decades; Cuba (American policy towards Cuba is absurd), the Middle East and North Korea. Others like Taiwan are likely to edge towards compromise and settlement. Afghanistan and Iraq, though they will remain unstable for some years yet, are messes of the West’s making.
The Korean peninsular is dangerous because a large scale war is possible with very significant civilian casualties. Seoul would be shattered by a vast artillery barrage on a scale last used by the Soviets against Berlin at the end of WWII. The economic impact would be considerable. Yet the West seems uncertain what to do if China looses control of its errant neighbour.
The first thing the West should do is assure China of its support in her efforts to make Pyongyang behave rationally. The second thing is to recognise that the era of prescriptive diplomacy driven by American sentiment and power is over. A new more engaging style is already emerging which seeks common interest. Arriving with clothes pegs on our noses and a list of changes required ‘to join the family of nations’ is way out of date and will no longer work.
The family of nations now has a lot of new members with more money than the West has and with a different view of the world. This is a reality upon which we will have to fashion a different attitude of mind. That can be driven by the knowledge that without the cash from these new family members, the old ones are bust. North Korea has to be engaged with, not sanctioned against. They may be communist, they may be a dictatorship, they may be this, that and the other, but they are not going to go away. We need to take a reality check and get down to work. We will find in China a very willing partner.