Libya-New Dynamics
March 13, 2011This started as a popular demonstration to end Gaddafi’s rule. It is now a full blown civil war. Militarily, Gaddafi now has the upper hand. The rebels are significantly outgunned and to hold their gains, will require outside support or defections, including equipment, from the regular forces. However, for the rebels, all is by no means lost. The Arab League has well and truly dumped Gaddafi. His regime is without support anywhere in the world. Britain and France are driving hard for a no fly zone.
The problem is that, rightly, this time, only a minority will consider any military moves to help the rebels and only a tiny minority will consider such move without a U.N. mandate. The Arab League have made a U.N. mandate a condition for their support of a no fly zone. Germany, Russia and China are firmly against any used of armed force, including a no fly zone. That is a formidable combination in the U.N. Our blundering foreign office needs to avoid breaking the consensus which has provided the unanimity which will, in the medium term, prove more and more a problem for Gaddafi. Above all, he wants to divide the West, the Arabs and the U.N. It would be foolish to play into his hands.
Beneficial.
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