Libya Policy
March 16, 2011This blog is cautious about the value and wisdom of a No Fly Zone. At the moment it is a non runner. America sits on the fence. Russia, China and Germany are opposed. Only Britain and France are gung ho and pressing the case. So far the Arab League have supported, conditional upon a U.N. mandate, which kills it at the moment. The G8 have walked away, as has the EU.
Gaddafi is now winning, though not as convincingly as his propaganda proclaims. There is no certainty that his troops will remain loyal in sufficient numbers to overcome Benghazi. Without that victory, Libya remains divided. Gaddafi’s stand has impacted events in Dubai. Here the ruling family are now willing to use sufficient force to crush the rebellion. The Saudis are willing to help. In the long run all these autocracies will fall, but though this may be the beginning, the time for the wholesale Arab Revolution is not yet.
Part of the reason is the calamity of Iraq and Afghanistan, where bright new dawns turned at once to a long and bloody night, without being able to raise a government with a writ over all its territory. America is hobbled by this past foreign policy mayhem; thus it waits for others to lead. France, which opposed the Iraq invasion, is unburdened by this shameful legacy and thus feels strong enough to speak out. With a certain deftness, which may pass unnoticed in the wake of its recent blunders, the British foreign office has lined up with the French, to create a new dynamic on the international scene, independent of the U.S.
This is a very worthwhile development. Logically this should lead to a four power cohesion of Britain, France Germany and Russia. That will not happen on the Libya issue, but it should be a long term aim. Meanwhile the failure to gain support for the NFZ, is a direct outcome of the shambolic Iraq invasion and the indecisive, never ending war in Afghanistan. In foreign policy, as in everything else, one thing leads to another.
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Libya Action Could Last ‘a While’ says Fox News
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“China has noted the recent developments in Libya and expressed his regret about the military attack against Libya,” the statement said. The text, which did not not call for a cease-fire, said that Beijing respects “the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity” of the country. “We hope that Libya can restore stability as quickly as possible and avoid further civilian casualties in escalating armed conflict,”
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