Rebels Advance
March 26, 2011It is is beginning to look as if, whatever UNSCR 1973 says, Britain, France and the U.S. are interpreting it more proactively than some of its supporters expected. It is now clear that precision firepower is being directed at pro Gaddafi forces, so as to alow the rebels to advance. Moreover, after initial hesitation, this is what they have begun to do. How far they can get without a proper military command structure, training or heavy weapons remains to be seen. This is a step beyond protecting civilians by the allies, who are now coming clean and essentially saying that the very existence of Gaddafi is in itself a threat.
To all but the naive this is regime change by another route. To judge whether the mission is a success for the allies, three things must be achieved. Regime change, a transfer to a democratic government and no terrorist reprisals afterwards. This is quite a list. It goes somewhat beyond UNSCR 1973, but if no ground troops are involved, it will be accepted by a relieved international community. However if Iraq style chaos develops, things will take a nasty turn for Obama, Sarkozy and Cameron. For them it will be a political end game.
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