Unemployment and Inflation Fall

Neither of these two items of good news was expected. Both,  probably, will be reversed in the coming months before settling into a downward trend, so not too much should be read into these pieces of welcome data. Nevertheless they do show that things are not going in the direction of the borrow more now brigade of dangerous nutters, still active on the airwaves, but now less so. Osborne can take a touch of comfort with his coffee this morning.

Although the level of youth unemployment remains very worrying, it has not risen as predicted. There is a systemic element to this, related to the weaknesses in eduction, now being tackled. From the perspective of history we can now see that, perversely, it was not the abolition of the grammar schools which created real difficulty later. It was the abolition of the secondary moderns. Much derided and considered socially divisive, their contribution to the well being of society and the employment prospects of their students was a good deal undervalued. Not everyone needs to be a lawyer.

Which brings me to another statistic. The number of professional services firms in trouble has risen by 61% on a year ago. Bars and restaurants in trouble are up by 68%. There may be some truth in the cynical view that the latter is the product of the former. What is not in doubt is that both are a symptom of the re-balancing of the economy. However distressing for those involved, this is not only inevitable, but necessary.