Elections: First Thoughts

It is rash to comment on a blog like this one, before the outcome is known in an election. However a trend has developed which is very interesting. The Lib Dem vote has crashed back to the level of past times when it was never enough to be more than a nuisance. The Tories are holding their own in England so far (they do not count anywhere else). Labour have been making big gains up north and have gained one landmark council in the south (Gravesham). The SNP is on the way to a spectacular victory in Scotland, where Labour has had a disaster. On the other hand Labour is doing well in  Wales. So what do we make of all this?

What is happening is that the Lib Dem protest vote, which is  a big segment of its total, has drained away, but not all in the same direction. In Scotland it has gone to the SNP, with spectacular results. In the north of England it has gone mostly to Labour and locally with a vengeance; in Manchester every single LibDem candidate has been defeated.

The question now hangs, where is that Lib Dem flood going to pour in the south? Or will there be no flood? When those answers are known this blog will have a lot more to say.

Meanwhile a thought. Since 1974 only two political leaders have been able to gain and sustain a majority in the Commons. Thatcher and Blair. The Labour governments of 1974 (two) either did not have or later lost majority, as did the Conservative government of John Major after a narrow win in 1992. Thatcher and Blair both depended on the distribution of the third party protest vote, since neither ever had a majority of the votes cast.