Election: The Picture Clears

The Tories, who were braced to loose 1000 seats and actually have a net gain of over 50 so far, have done very well. Labour, with a net gain of 700, have done well considering it is only a year from their election defeat, but nothing like as well as everybody, including opinion polls, suggested. They have, however been totally trounced by the SNP in Scotland.

The Lib Dems have had a calamity. They have lost seats to Labour across the north where their advance  has been the bedrock of their increased numbers at Westminster since 1997, but they have also lost to the Tories in the south where their coalition partners are their main challenge. In other words they are losing votes both ways. Lots of votes. They have lost some 600 councillors. For them this is a meltdown.

It is a meltdown because their protest vote component, a key ingredient for a party that was seen as the permanent party of opposition, has drifted back home to Labour, ex Blair and Brown, or to the Tories, now that they have become more moderate and nicer. What their future is, or whether they have one beyond counting their MPs in teens, depends on the outcome of the AV referendum and for that we have to wait a little longer. We think we know, but nothing in these elections has gone according to expectations, so before this blog goes further, we will wait for the actual result. We do know that turnout is higher than expected, but we must wait to see what, if anything, that means.